Thursday 29 March 2018

Is the Brexit debate over?

I've been reading Nick Clegg's book How To Stop Brexit. Sad, I know, but it was buy one get one half price. No, I didn't buy TWO! Mrs H was buying a whodunnit and I decided I should understand the contrary (remember that can be pronounced two ways) point of view. And not as sad as Nick....

It seems Nick now realises that the EU had many flaws, the UK shouldn't have allowed unlimited immigration from eastern Europe without transitional arrangements (which several other countries invoked) and that the euro was launched without all (or many) of the necessary institutions and arrangements to support a currency. Hmm. We need politicians to anticipate these things, Nick,  lots of folk can figure it out afterwards. He has also now realised that it was a risky economic experiment for countries like Ireland and Spain to lower interest rates on joining the euro, to match Germany. Nick makes this sound like a revelation but that is exactly how I described it at the time of the euro's launch.

However, Nick thinks that Europe is about to reform itself big time (we've heard that before) and we will regret not being part of it. I am still to read Nick's prospectus for how he thinks Brexit should be stopped, but I have news for Nick. In the meantime, the British people have moved on.

For the latest independent poll shows that 57% of the electorate agree with the statement
“the government should get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade”.

Only 22% disagreed. Not only that, the split by gender, age group, social class and political party shows that in every group - yes every single group,  a majority support this statement which would have been thought just a few weeks ago to describe what was being called a the hardest of hard  Brexits. The only group identified in which a majority disagreed with the statement was Remain voters.*

This seems remarkable as the same polling organisation's referendum opinion tracker, measuring responses to the question "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union?" recorded an 11 point margin in favour of Remain in December**. At the time it was stated that much of the polling was done before the first agreement reached between the EU and UK. Now we have a second agreement and progress towards transition and a full deal, it seems the public just want to get it done with.

And they do. Not just Tory voters. Not just Labour voters (though only by 40% to 36%). Remarkably LibDem voters were more in agreement than Labour (44 to 34). Even Green (41 to 34) and SNP voters agreed. (Though for SNP in the margin of error at 36 to 35 with 29% don't knows). And in all regions. Even in London, by 49 to 35.

At face value this poll is overwhelming. It seems that, now it looks as if progress is being made towards a sensible deal,  the electorate have had enough and just want to get it done.

Debate over?

It seems Nick's book is already way out of date.....


*The poll was carried out by BMG and the results can be seen in detail at https://order-order.com/2018/03/23/new-poll-shows-overwhelming-majority-want-get-brexit/

**The BMG referendum tracker can be seen at http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/independent-poll-shift-toward-remain-at-height-of-brexit-negotiation-tensions/







1 comment:

  1. Clegg was good at one thing, I'll give you that, he was Parliament's greatest expert on the EU and its workings when he was an MP. Other than that his time as Lib Dem Leader was inglorious, mainly for him lying over Tuition Fees but also for thinking that Tories could be trusted to behave well in the Coalition Government. Of course they behaved appallingly and Clegg did not kick them hard and in public when they did it. A well meaning man if you discount the Tuition Fees issue (which I can't) but he took the Lib Dems towards the right, where they have no place at all. Liberals are radicals and of the left. On Brexit Clegg is of course right but then again so is Blair, another deeply flawed politician. No Brexit deal can in any way be as good as the deal we have being in the EU, only an Exit from Brexit will do - every other route is going to make us all poorer.

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