In Florence Theresa May gave the speech that could - and should - have been given six months ago. But the Tories had to go through the first rounds of the "non" negotiation to coalesce behind a half way coherent approach to transition and exit, i.e. making sure the other 27 aren't immediately financially disadvantaged when we leave (else why should they co-operate one iota), a defined and time-limited transition to give businesses on both sides the chance to adjust and a bespoke future relationship, because none of the existing models work. Remember, this whole, enormous, energy-sapping endeavour is because of the Tory party's need to find a way of holding itself together. At every turn.
May's speech thawed the ice a bit, but amongst the warm noises were the expected barbs, mainly "not enough detail". Barnier, Merkel, Macron and others will keep taking turns at saying this. It was Macron's turn this time, saying there must be more detail on the exit bill, EU citizens' rights and the Irish border before trade talks can begin. This broken record approach will be leavened by words of encouragement to make us commit to huge costs with no guarantee of anything much in return. After all, they don't just want to preserve their bloated bureacracy till the end of their current budget in 2020, do they?
Per Yanis Varoufakis (and me), this is what you do when you want to ruin a negotiation, either because you don't want a deal at all or you want to put the other side under such time pressure come the end game that they will agree to almost anything. Rule 1 is "not enough detail". Note, it's never "that doesn't work for us, but something more like this might". Try again to pin ze tail on ze donkey that doesn't even exist, ya dumb rosbifs! Have another go, you dozy Brits! You're nowhere near - and the clock is running! If it was a game show it might be funny.
Per Nigel Lawson (see yesterday's post) we still don't get it - this isn't, for the EU, a negotiation about economic prosperity in the future. The EU is a political organisation, dedicated to its political survival and political development. We have threatened that and can't be allowed to get out and immediately flourish. It's not even about us. It's "pour encourager les autres".
P.S. The implications of the above are that we must be ready, if it continues to be a "non" negotiation, to walk away from Rene* in good time to put the pressure back on the other side. Barnier says there's only 12 months left, to allow time for ratifaction by 2019. I think we need to be sure we can get a deal with 12 months to go, which means in 6 months time, else we need to use our only card in these negotiations: they won't get the money and their budgets will suddenly be short. If we let the clock run down without being fully prepared for no deal we are in trouble. Either that or we start making visible and meaningful preparations for no deal. I do hope the cabinet has talked this through and are ready to be as fully behind it as they were May's bunch of platitudes in Florence.
* see Don't Walk Away, Renee? 17 Sept 2017
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