In your guts, you know he's nuts

At some point in the US presidential election campaign I remember thinking that, if the Republicans chose Trump, it would be a landslide for the Democrats. (Don't snigger, a lot of you did). Trump reminded me of Barry Goldwater, a right wing, arguably racist, firebrand, who lost heavily to Lyndon Johnson in 1964. As JFK's VP, Johnson had taken over the presidency in November 1963 and, when put to the test himself a year later, won by one of the biggest margins ever in a presidential race.
I only just remember this,  but Kennedy's assassination made even a 12 year old pay a bit of attention.

Goldwater, like Trump a maverick Republican, loathed the liberal, Washington establishment, which he saw as peaceniks. He was backed by the Ku Klux Klan and rebuffed by most of the Republican party leaders. Many saw him as extremist: but he said "extremism in defence of liberty is no vice". Goldwater, who had voted against the civil rights act passed by Congress under Johnson that year, railed against Johnson's liberal agenda, welfare programmes - suggesting that social security become "optional" - and what he characterised as Johnson's weakness in the face of the soviet threat, in particular Cuba, 90 miles of the US coast, being communist controlled.  On more than one occasion, Goldwater seemed to suggest that he would not be above using nuclear weapons on both Cuba and North Vietnam to achieve U.S. objectives.

Johnson, meanwhile, mollified domestic concerns about a possible war in Asia by claiming that he would not send “American boys nine or ten thousand miles from home to do what Asian boys ought to be doing for themselves.” Johnson’s statement satisfied many Americans, but any commitment he may have had about avoiding direct U.S. involvement in the Vietnam conflict was already eroding by the time of the 1964 election. Nevertheless he won a massive 60 percent of the popular vote and no democrat has won a bigger share of the electoral college since, though Republicans Nixon (1972) and Reagan (1984) had bigger electoral college margins. Johnson won 44 states to Goldwater's 6. It was a landslide.

Mind, Johnson lied:  four months after his victory, he committed U.S. combat troops to Vietnam.

The 1964 campaign was possibly at least as tetchy as 2016 and is often described as "bitter". Strangely, Goldwater was a personal friend of JFK and had been hoping for an election contest with his friend and political rival. One wonders if, had it happened, that campaign would have been more dignified, but surely the result would have been even more embarrassing.

In the campaign Goldwater refused to moderate his views and the Johnson campaign didn't pull any punches. In reference to Goldwater's policies regarding the use of nuclear weaponry, the Johnson campaign launched a television ad that would come to be known as the "daisy ad" in which a young girl pulls the petals off a flower until the screen is overtaken by an exploding mushroom cloud. Johnson accused Goldwater of being willing to use nuclear weapons in Vietnam after stating the United States should do whatever was necessary for victory. Goldwater clarified that he was not an "outright advocate" of using nuclear weapons there. This has echoes in Clinton's question about whether Trump could be trusted with the nuclear button, though the Clinton campaign seems positively gentlemanly (odd word I know for a female candidate but it seems appropriate) compared with Johnson's.

So, like many, I assumed "crooked Hillary" would beat Trump easily, just as Johnson had thumped Goldwater. Many people are still trying to understand what happened, but I can't help thinking that there was a reaction to 8 years of Obama: partly his colour, I fear, as well as a rejection of liberal values, but also the usual "enough, time for the other lot to have a go".

During 2016 many commentators pointed out parallels between Goldwater and Trump but many also noted that there were substantial differences*. One interesting parallel is the comment that the prospect of Goldwater's election "....scares the hell out of me.” Except that was actually said by Goldwater himself!

But perhaps the most amusing thing I've read about the 1964 campaign was about slogans. Goldwater ran with a slogan "In your heart, you know he's right". To which Johnson's team responded with "In your guts you know he's nuts".

Though I hadn't spotted it, there were attempts to use this slogan against Trump last year.

So some aspects of history repeated themselves, but not others. And the idea that last year's campaign was unusually bad tempered just ain't true.

But we do know they were both nuts.

*https://verdict.justia.com/2016/05/27/dont-compare-trumps-presidential-campaign-barry-goldwaters